While very few experts nationwide predicted a small-market Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Finals matchup, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised these teams are playing for the first NBA title for their respective cities. The Pacers and Thunder have the league’s two best records overall since the calendar flipped to 2025. OKC is 53-13 since Jan. 1, and Indiana is 46-18 in that span.
The Pacers, the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, are just the fourth team in history to reach the NBA Finals after starting the season 10-15 or worse, and none of the previous three have won it all. Also note that the past seven teams seeded fourth or worse to reach this round didn’t win it. Overall, teams seeded fourth or worse are 2-9 in the Finals. I don’t expect the Pacers to make that 3-9.
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So in theory, that makes my pick for Finals MVP rather easy, as we likely won’t see a Connor McDavid-type moment this year in basketball, in which a player on the losing team takes home MVP honors. The Lakers’ Jerry West is the only NBA player to win Finals MVP on a losing club, doing so in 1969. That was the first year the award was given out.
Finals MVPs are almost always superstars, just like the regular-season version. The last winner who arguably didn’t fit that description was Golden State’s Andre Iguodala in 2015. He was a very good player and one-time All-Star. But otherwise this century, the list of Finals MVPs is littered with future Hall of Famers — and Detroit’s Chauncey Billups (2004).
At DraftKings Sportsbook, OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an overwhelming -600 favorite, followed by Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton (+750) and Pascal Siakam (+1600)’s and the Thunder’s Jalen Williams (+3500) and Chet Holmgren (+8000).
Here are my best bets for the NBA Finals MVP award:
Best value bet: Pascal Siakam (+1600, DraftKings)
I’m assuming that Oklahoma City will focus all of its defensive perimeter demons — Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace — on Haliburton. It worked in the regular season, as OKC won both meetings and Haliburton averaged just 11.0 points and 5.5 assists. So if Indiana can somehow pull off the series upset, I’m assuming it’ll be fueled by a Pascal Siakam explosion.
Siakam has Finals experience from 2019 with the Toronto Raptors, when he averaged 19.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists in the six-game win over Golden State. His then-teammate Kawhi Leonard was named series MVP. This year, Siakam earned Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors after dispatching the Knicks in Game 6 on Saturday. He averaged 24.8 points on 52.4% shooting (50% from 3) in the series and edged Haliburton for the award five votes to four. In the decisive Game 6 home victory, Siakam led all scorers with 31 points, his third 30-plus-point game of the series vs. New York (tied a franchise record for any playoff series). He’s also a very good defender.
Haliburton (+700) has a higher statistical ceiling, but had at least one truly poor game in each of the first three rounds of the playoffs. And I expect the Thunder to double Haliburton often to get the ball out of his hands. They did a great job on Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards in that regard in the Western Conference Finals. Siakam is about as consistent as they come, but is taking very little action on this prop: just 3% of the money and 3% of the bets at DraftKings since the start of the playoffs.
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Best overall bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-550, FanDuel)
There is no value in this play, I am well aware. But perhaps you could fold in Gilgeous-Alexander to score the most total points in the series (-3500) and at least 25 points in each game (-110). SGA looks to become the first player to win a scoring title and an NBA title in the same season since Shaquille O’Neal in 1999-00. He would also be only the fourth player to win a scoring title, NBA MVP and Finals MVP in same season, along with Shaq (1999-00), Michael Jordan (six times), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-71), George Mikan (twice) and Joe Fulks (1946-47).
Jordan winning each MVP Award in his six Finals is why I can’t really justify picking any other Thunder player, as SGA is so clearly the alpha on this teaM. Jalen Williams is the Scottie Pippen, I suppose, to SGA’s Jordan. Williams has a nice price of +3300 to win Finals MVP. But he has proven too inconsistent in these playoffs.
It’s not like Indiana has that one defensive stopper to slow Gilgeous-Alexander. He is averaging 32.7 PPG overall this season and can pass Jordan (32.6 in 1992-93) for the most PPG in a title-winning season. You know Gilgeous-Alexander is aware of that mark. No Canadian-born player has ever won Finals MVP, and you know SGA — from Toronto — is aware of that, too.
At DraftKings, SGA is taking easily the most handle (37%) and tickets (15%) on this prop since the start of the postseason. The book’s second-most exposure had been on Boston’s Jayson Tatum. Haliburton is third.